要同Annie講句對唔住,騎劫了她的post。
我囘你關於數字上的問題,原因是我同你一樣都對數字有懷疑。開始時,我是對美國的數字有興趣。當時,香港的數據都未能掌握好,更何況美國。而且,開始時我都相信真係驗唔切,確診數一定信唔過。後來,就只能退而求其次,睇下佢哋嘅死亡數字。我估人未死,你可以唔驗,漏驗,錯驗。但人死了,就比較上難隱瞞。然後,我就再去CDC睇下資料。不過,好似你一樣,我認爲數據可以搬,未必信得過。不過,拿個概念都好。
其實你查出來的網頁,summary 部分是這樣寫:- In 2020, a total of 3,383,729 resident deathswere registered in the United States—528,891 more deaths than in 2019. Thenumber of deaths for which COVID-19 was the underlying cause of death was350,831 (10.4% of the total number of deaths in 2020). From 2019 to 2020, theage-adjusted death rate for the total population increased 16.8%. Thissingle-year increase is the largest since the first year that annual mortalitydata for the entire United States became available . The decrease in lifeexpectancy for the total population of 1.8 years from 2019 to 2020 is thelargest single-year decrease in more than 75 years .
CDC已經把矛頭指向了covid。不過,還不是很明確而已。因此我囘你時,我用上了多年的life expectancy作比較。這下,我估計你也有同感了。
香港第五波死了9千多人。估計感染人數為4百多萬。死亡率約0.25%。這雖然仍然偏高,但也在合理範圍。美國佬到目前爲止公佈的縂感染人數為81.6m。可是,單Omicron導致的死亡人數已經是500K。假如我仍用0.25%為死亡率,感染人數起碼要有2億人才能做到。這個人數對比香港的情況就合理得多了。
講遠了。關於哪一年齡層adjusted death rate 把平均壽命拉低的問題。其實你post出來的網頁,圖4下面是可以access data 的。你會找到這個:- https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db427-tables.pdf#4
第3頁,你會看到15嵗前的死亡率(19vs20)幾乎沒變。變的是其他年齡層。有趣的是增幅在每個年齡層居然都差不多!
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