25分的部署

lovelyaudrey

過往經驗, 有邊D直資會係自行分配前已公佈收生呢?

小曳人

原帖由 ok_ko 於 11-8-4 14:25 發表
25分大部分都是舊生分數+洗禮。目前25分跟出生率的關係不大，除非所有出生的小孩都是來自本地人。 所以除非學校有減班，不然統計學上來講，入不到的機會太微。 ...

最近咁啱揾咗d出生數據:
港婦所生:
2003- 36837
2004- 36587
2005- 37560
2006- 39494
2007- 43301
2008- 45257
2009- 44894

就咁睇，出年2007嗰班，真係未必一定得！

ok_ko

No. We are not looking at the population who can enter the school. To acquire 25 pts, the candidate should heritage 10 pts from siblings or parent. To estimate the total number of person qualifying for the heritage points, we have to look at the population of the old boys (or girls). It is in fact a big population. Then this population leads to a number of candidates qualifying the 25 pts.

If you told me that there are 29 people with 25 pts and 1 with 20 pts filling up the quota, I believe 25 pts may fail in next year. However if you are talking about 20 people with 25 pts and 10 with 20 pts that filling up the quota, 25 pts is very safe.

By eliminating the DP places, it also reduced the head count of siblings currently studying in that school. I agree in short term it has some effect. However, in long term, it has no effect.

原帖由 wootaitai 於 11-8-4 14:56 發表
The point is that we are talking about around 30 DP places in a particular school every year, say there are 20 people with 25 pts and 10 with 20 pts that fill up the quota.

These are quite "small" nu ...

[ 本帖最後由 ok_ko 於 11-8-4 15:32 編輯 ]

ok_ko

So, it has been increased by 10% only.

If I continue to use the estimation provided by wootaitai, i.e. 20 people with 25 pts and 10 with 20 pts that fill up the quota, 10% increment will probably generate 2 more candidates with 25 pts. 25 pts is still very safe.

原帖由 小曳人 於 11-8-4 15:12 發表


最近咁啱揾咗d出生數據:
港婦所生:
2003- 36837
2004- 36587
2005- 37560
2006- 39494
2007- 43301
2008- 45257
2009- 44894

就咁睇，出年2007嗰班，真係未必一定得！ ...

carloslau

多謝各位的回應, 先不談是那間名校, 女兒是2007年出生, 想問一下為什麼只考慮港婦所生? 另外, 35分及30分的是否在另一個pool而對25分沒有影響?

iantsang

Agree that you have a point that many people are excluded automatically to ever receive 25 points or more.  So the overall birth rate's effect may be less significant (but it is a trend in fact).

Let's use example to illustrate the situation:

For example, if the school being target has 5 P1 classes of 30 students each (the large class standard set by EDB).  That means there are total 150 seats, and so there will be 75 seats for sibling studying or parents working in that school seats + DP.  Historically we know some of these popular choices have a high chance that their first 30% seats are already occupied by siblings studying there or parents working there.  So, that would mean there are only 20% seats remain for DP.  In this case, that means just 30 seats (I guess may be this is what wootaitai was referring to).  Need to mention not many primary schools still have classes more than 4 classes so this example is already using a rather high-end of the common cases.

So, is it easy to fill up the 30 seats of old girls' daughters?  I would have to say "yes" since how hard is it to have 30 old girls (with same religion with the school) having babies in the same year?  And don't forget, there are also situations where the elder siblings who study in same campus address also fall into this category.

Hope this is more clear.

原帖由 ok_ko 於 11-8-4 15:31 發表
No. We are not looking at the population who can enter the school. To acquire 25 pts, the candidate should heritage 10 pts from siblings or parent. To estimate the total number of person qualifying fo ...

[ 本帖最後由 iantsang 於 11-8-4 16:16 編輯 ]

iantsang

I assume since you mentioned it is your wife's old school, so the assumption is these old girls should come from the local mother category.

For those over 25 points, they are in the same category so that's why some parents miss this.  If the secondary school is sharing the same address with the primary school, then the young siblings will fall into this points range.

原帖由 carloslau 於 11-8-4 15:53 發表
多謝各位的回應, 先不談是那間名校, 女兒是2007年出生, 想問一下為什麼只考慮港婦所生? 另外, 35分及30分的是否在另一個pool而對25分沒有影響?

小曳人

原帖由 carloslau 於 11-8-4 15:53 發表
多謝各位的回應, 先不談是那間名校, 女兒是2007年出生, 想問一下為什麼只考慮港婦所生? 另外, 35分及30分的是否在另一個pool而對25分沒有影響?

大6人，應該無old girls掛~~

carloslau

也有綜合大家的意見, 看過一些私校, 不是學費太貴, 就是在中學的銜接一般, 真的很難選擇

ok_ko

I understand your argument.

The candidates bearing 25 points may come from a population of 2000-3000 old boys/girls (either parent or siblings). I am still using wootaitai's figure. If nothing has been changed, there are 20 candidates having 25 marks entering to the school in each years. Obviously, there are candidates having 25 marks do not apply for that school with some reasons. A population of 2000-3000 people is quite big that if the mean of normal distribution of the # of candidates bearing of 25 marks generated by them is 20 people (let's say the mean is 20), it is quite difficult to have 30 candidates with 25 marks in next year except that the standard deviation is very big. However, if such deviation is big, an elite school should have successful candidates with 20 marks in past years.

True, it is not hard to find 30 candidates with 25 marks from 2000-3000 old boys/girls. However, obviously that there were reasons that not every old boys/girls take the priviledge. Otherwises, 20 points would have chance in the past.

The mean can be changed if there are incidents affecting the decision of the 2000-3000 old boys/girls.

原帖由 iantsang 於 11-8-4 16:09 發表
Agree that you have a point that many people are excluded automatically to ever receive 25 points or more.  So the overall birth rate's effect may be less significant (but it is a trend in fact).

Let ...

[ 本帖最後由 ok_ko 於 11-8-4 17:26 編輯 ]

iantsang

I guess we got carried away over this discussion so let's be focused on the member's question rather than who is right or wrong here.

The reason that I feel responsible to illustrate the data is because I am worried that it is possible a certain assumption may not be risk-free.

At the end, it is just information to be shared among parents to consider.

Thanks very much for your input!

原帖由 ok_ko 於 11-8-4 17:10 發表
I understand your argument.

The candidates bearing 25 points may come from a population of 2000-3000 old boys/girls (either parent or siblings). I am still using wootaitai's figure. If nothing has b ...

[ 本帖最後由 iantsang 於 11-8-4 17:40 編輯 ]

ok_ko

True. Actually, my objective is to comfort the owner of this thread. If he is not talking about next year, I will have other comment.
It is always good to play safe.

原帖由 iantsang 於 11-8-4 17:38 發表
I guess we got carried away over this discussion so let's be focused on the member's question rather than who is right or wrong here.

The reason that I feel responsible to illustrate the data is beca ...

w_y

講清楚D我朋友個case: 父母係不同宗教, 但為左兒子"必定" 入到父親母校, 母親驚起上來至趕快安排洗禮. 如非兩三年後學位預計會非常緊張, 母定不作此安排. (此舉是非對錯不欲在此討論) 即係話會多左原先20分的人, 升呢變左25分.

我還記得女兒初出生, BK 很多人跟我說九龍某女校20分必收, 我原已打算讓女兒小一升讀, 結果女兒3 歲時, 20 分已收唔晒. 當時好多家長都好意外, 早知抽紅磚屋好過. 世事總是難料, 數就係咁計出來, 但到時真正有幾多人揀就無人知.
另外仲有一種組合, 係男士娶內地女性所生的孩子, 絕對有人夠25 分. 當然比例上會少D.
女星都流行嫁內地男士/外國人啦.

SCKnight

我身邊都有好多人揸住25分。
而呢批人黎黎去去都係港島區同九龍傳統一線名校。
重要面對縮班或轉全日，佢地都覺得揸呢25分都敢講一定入硬。只係機會較高。

carloslau

我又想問問大家, 有那些直資/私立, 個offer會和大抽獎結果的時間差不多的?