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My kid is in CIS senior secondary and was transferred from another IS in year 7. According to my observation, home breed students and transferred-in students have equal chance to top U. A few years ago, the school compiled some statistics which showed that average IB scores of students admitted in reception and those admitted midway are similar. The headmaster added in the remarks that "bear in mind students admitted midway, especially at or after year 7, were based on academic excellence".
I personally know quite a large percentage of students in CIS who were admitted to top Us like Princeton, Oxford, Cambridge, Columbia, etc. are without connections, not alumni, no money donation. Harvard may be another story.
In general, most of the students in year 10/11 onwards work very hard, have a lot of pressure from essay, assignments, and tests, care much about academic results. I also observe that those transferred in from local elite schools like DXS or SPXX may not perform very well under this IB and essay intensive environment.
The above is just some personal observation from a CIS parent.
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