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鷹女黃 發表於 13-7-15 21:26
回復 redkoni 的帖子
Dear Redkoni,
I must say you have a brilliant mind to master the S1 places allocation mechanism as well as data analysis and projections. I really appreciate your input and effort, which I think all of our readers will be benefitted from your analysis and comment.
Your Southern District School Net data and analysis appeal to me as my girl will be in primary 6 in 9/2013. My girl studies at Southern District Government Primary School ["SDPS"]. BPS has two feeder schools in Southern District, namely SDPS and Island Road Government Primary School.
My girl is Band 1 grading and I guess there might be a total of 14-18 girls within the Band 1 grading.
BPS - 9/2013 S1 ADMISSION DATA
1. a] My girl's teacher briefly told me that BPS would not like [is reluctant?] to admit SDPS students under Discretionary Places.
b] BPS admitted 12 girls and 7 girls from SDPS in 9/2012 and 9/2013 respectively. A total of 3 girls were invited to attend an interview in 2013. A girl had declined BPS and joined a fee paying school. Thus, the other 2 girls, who had attended interview, could be admitted under Discretionary Places or in Central Allocation under nominated places [9 places in total ] for BPS's two feeder schools in Southern District.
c] Based on 9/2012 and 9/2013 published figures, could you please enlighten me on point 1a matter?
d] Apart from the concerned primary school [I suppose], could we find out the precise number of nominated places reserved for SDPS out the total 9 places?
e] If Island Road Government Primary School had no Band 1 grading [after those 2 adjustment factors] girl applying for BPS's reserved nominated places, could it be possible that SDPS's students be entitled to be allocated to the originally reserved nominated places for Island Road primary students?
2. I would like to maximize the chance of my girl to be admitted by BPS, St. Stephen's Girls and Ying Wah Girls in 9/2014.
From your analyses, there are a total of 7 [2+3+2] unreserved places offered by the above 3 girls schools to Southern District's primary girls in 9/2013. Assuming the same 2013 data will be applied in 2014 Central Allocation,
I would be grateful if you could advise whether the following options could maximize the chance of being offered a place by BPS.
A] Discretionary Places Applications : 1] BPS, 2] Ying Wah Girls.
B] Section A: 1] BPS, 2] Ying Wah, 3] St.Stephen's Girls.
C] Section B : 1] BPS, ,St. Stephens's Girls, 3] Ying Wah.
Good health, good spirit and good luck!
Regards,
Mama Gohome 首先有兩點要說明:
1.根據聯繫保留位機制,兩間聯繫官小並無預設的保留位各自配額,每間可以分配到幾多學額取決於學生的意願、Banding及隨機編號。
2.根據聯繫保留位機制,你們的官小有4間聯繫中學,你必須將其中1間聯繫中學放在乙部第一志願才可抽其聯繫保留位,當然,在這裏的Band1女生應該只會選BPS或者金文泰。
南區統一派位乙部
BPS學額
2013年 非保留位=2 保留位=9
2012年 非保留位=4 保留位=7
金文泰學額
2013年 非保留位=4 保留位=3
2012年 非保留位=4 保留位=3
南區官立小學升中派位結果
2013年 BPS=7 金文泰=11
2012年 BPS=12 金文泰=??你可否告知有幾多?
其實在南區統一派位乙部的第一志願,除了少數BPS的忠實粉絲之外,極少外校生敢選BPS,外校生就算選都也只能爭非保留位,所以形勢對兩間官小爭BPS有極大優勢,而香島道官小相對較弱,換句話說,即是對南區官小有極大優勢。假設甲部無人抽中BPS,乙部第一志願無外校B1女生爭,亦無香島道官小B1女生爭,2012年南區官小即使盡取11個BPS抽獎位,起碼都有一位是從自行或叩門入BPS,反觀2013年的派位結果,從表面上看,自行收生的成功率近乎零,但更有趣的是只有7人派BPS,還少過保留位(9個位),如果這7人全是保留位,即是有2個保留位被香島道官小B1女生取走,但聽講香島道官小過往都幾弱,是否今年因為師兄師姐2012的Pre-S1 HKAT成績大躍進而被拉高?如果屬實,確是令你們明年難度增加。但有樣嘢影響更大 - 人為因素!
我反而想請教你:假設今年你地小學有14位Band1女生參加大抽獎,如果只有BPS、金文泰俾你揀,睇怕十成都揀BPS,而你亦明知另一間官小很弱(Band2生多)根本無乜B1生能夠來爭,即使這14位Band1生一齊第一志願揀BPS,就算當無外校生來爭果2個非保留位都好,你地係咪最多只有11位中獎,餘下3位便跌落去抽第二志願。咁如果我刻意將14位Band1女生分流,叫9位去抽BPS,叫5位去抽金文泰,咁又點睇?我估會全部抽中第一志願囉,戰績彪炳囉,哈哈。如果今年香島道並非大躍進,咁做衰,得7個人有可能係估錯Band、計錯數(叫多咗人去金文泰)或者有人叩門更好的。所以家長最緊要先確定小朋友的Banding,屬Band1生便要自己揸主意,唔好人講你就照做,當然博更好嘅又會有更高風險,但起碼我有權利知道自己可以點做,點博都甘心命抵嘛!上述一切,純屬個人胡亂揣測,並無事實根據,如有雷同,實屬巧合。
我覺得乙部大抽獎第二志願抽聖士提反女機會不高,第三志願抽英華女機會極微,唔好嘥咗個第三志願。
祝大家最緊要身體健康!哈哈
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