本帖最後由 ABC-DAD 於 22-10-29 08:52 編輯
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/planecrash/risk-01.html
你的觀點我明白，資訊數據我亦有睇，亦唔反對，請容許我亦可以從另一個方向展示一些東西，做乘客同做機師在累積風險上係值得注意一下。故我想指出 - 民航機師待遇高不單純是一架飛機的價值遠高於一部巴士。
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/planecrash/risk-01.html
HOW RISKY IS FLYING? BY DAVID ROPEIKTrying to judge whether a particular risk is big or small is, well, a risky business. There's a lot more to it than you might think. Flying in airplanes is a case in point. You'd think that you could just find out the numbers—the odds—and that would be it. The annual risk of being killed in a plane crash for the average American is about 1 in 11 million. On that basis, the risk looks pretty small. Compare that, for example, to the annual risk of being killed in a motor vehicle crash for the average American, which is about 1 in 5,000. But if you think about those numbers, problems crop up right away. First of all, you are not the average American. Nobody is. Some people fly more and some fly less and some don't fly at all. So if you take the total number of people killed in commercial plane crashes and divide that into the total population, the result, the risk for the average American, may be a good general guide to whether the risk is big or small, but it's not specific to your personal risk. Then there's another numbers problem: what denominator are you using? (For the math-challenged, like me, that's the number at the bottom of a fraction.) You can calculate the risk of flying by: - Dividing the number of people who die into the total number of people, which gives you the risk for the average person;
- Dividing the number of victims into the number of total flights all passengers took, which gives the risk per flight;
or - Dividing the number of victims into the total number of miles all of them flew, which gives you the risk per mile.
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/planecrash/risky.html
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發表於 22-10-28 19:28
