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HKDSE 2012 結果 - 應用篇
熱度 31 ||
昨日早上幫三個朋友的孩子分析JUPAS, Band A 的擺位及降級去讀AD 或 IVE。過程中發覺2011年的HKALE入學成績跟HKDSE有可比性，例子如下:
另一個例子:
我用HKALE中位數跟朋友女兒的HKDSE作對比，如果總分高於HKALE入學成績中位數，成功入讀的機會相當高。當然我查過A vs 5**, B vs 5*....... 學生數目好接近，應該可信性頗高。(JustAParent 提供：https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AgFlZda3jVo9dFJ2ZXd2OVhyWUtJQzExWTNiNVlRbHc#gid=0
| Qfin | Admission Grade | Admission Figures | UE | CLC | AL-1 | AL-2 | AL-3 | AS-1 | AS-2 | AS-3 | |||
| Upper Quartile | C | A | A | A | A | ||||||||
| Median | B | D | A | A | A | A | |||||||
| Lower Quartile | C | B | A | A | D | ||||||||
| Median | 6 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 31 | 35 | 5 subjects | ||||
| Your Daughter's Score | 5** | 5 | 5** | 5* | 5 | 5** | 5 | 5 | |||||
| 7 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 31-32 | 35 | 5 subjects |
另一個例子:
| HKU Speech | Admission Grade | Admission Figures | UE | CLC | AL-1 | AL-2 | AL-3 | AS-1 | AS-2 | |||
| Upper Quartile | A | C | A | B | A | |||||||
| Median | C | B | A | B | B | |||||||
| Lower Quartile | C | B | A | B | C | |||||||
| Median | 5 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 30 | 35 | 5 subjects | ||||
| Your Daughter's Score | 5 | 5 | 5** | 5* | 5 | 4 | 4 | |||||
| 5 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 28 | 35 | 5 subjects |
我用HKALE中位數跟朋友女兒的HKDSE作對比，如果總分高於HKALE入學成績中位數，成功入讀的機會相當高。當然我查過A vs 5**, B vs 5*....... 學生數目好接近，應該可信性頗高。(JustAParent 提供：
HKDSE- HKALE data comparison) 第二個例子比第一個機會微，所以A-2要保守d，唔係會出事。
由於考評局用3,3,2,2 或3,3,2,2,2作代表有機會升讀大學，誤導性好高，由於達到3,3,2,2有26,000人，只有12,000資助學位(3,000是非聯招)，所以港大的 4,4,4,4,4 = 20 反而實際及有代表性，因為人數約12,000人。換句話說，低於20分，除非選冷門科目，不然之話，成功率很低。
中大醫學院只面試 5 x 5* = 30分以上的學生，即707人。大學礙於時間緊迫，傑出及偏低的學生唔夠時間面試，成績好即收，偏低唔睇，中間約二選一，跟AL差不多。
希望88muimui唔介意啦，她的例子如下:
| PolyU Physio | Admission Grade | Admission Figures | UE | CLC | AL-1 | AL-2 | AL-3 | AS-1 | AS-2 | |||
| Upper Quartile | ||||||||||||
| Median | B | B | B | B | B | |||||||
| Lower Quartile | ||||||||||||
| Median | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 30 | 35 | 5 subjects | ||||
| Your Daughter's Score | 5 | 5* | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | |||||
| 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 35 | 5 subjects |
88muimui 妳會問點解係 5 x 6 = 30 唔係 16.7。因為PolyU 用 AL 成績時 A=5, B=4..... 但 AS 時分數乘 0.6 ，所以 3 x 4 + (2x4x0.6) = 16.8. 然後換算成 B = 6，5 x 6 = 30.......機會有但會微d，但比第二個例子，她的 A-2 正好是物理治療。
註意:
1. 當我做分析及計算時，我沒有為某些指定科目乘以 "權重"，例如選英文系，英文好可能乘 x 1.5 或者 x 2.0...... 物理治療，生物會有權重.......... 因為唔肯定所以無計出來，但考慮機會時，我會考慮埋才評估機會。
2. 由於JUPAS可能無協調，有部分大學用5** = 7, 另一部分用5** = 6....... 我用5** = 7 作計算，因為我覺得合理些。
3. 我的計算方法可能HKDSE成績越高，準確度會高些。因為我是嘗試以HKALE成績及過往收生標準作水平對照，亦因為計算方法有d未知數，所以我亦用中位數作參考，提高安全系數。
| CUHK Statistics | Admission Grade | Admission Figures | UE | CLC | AL-1 | AL-2 | AL-3 | AS-1 | AS-2 | AS-3 | |||
| Upper Quartile | E | C | A | B | C | ||||||||
| Median | E | C | C | C | D | ||||||||
| Lower Quartile | E | D | B | B | C | ||||||||
| Median | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 22 | 35 | 5 subjects | |||||
| Your Score | 5* | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | ||||||
| 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 35 | 5 subjects |
| CUHK English & BEdu | Admission Grade | Admission Figures | UE | CLC | AL-1 | AL-2 | AL-3 | AS-1 | AS-2 | AS-3 | |||
| Upper Quartile | B | C | C | D | D | ||||||||
| Median | C | C | B | D | B | D | |||||||
| Lower Quartile | C | B | B | E | E | ||||||||
| Median | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 35 | 5 subjects | |||||
| Your Score | 5* | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | ||||||
| 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 35 | 5 subjects |
88muimui 統計學應該好穩陣，可能保守d，可以擺後d，例如A-3。雙學位英文+教育應該合適，不過是否有興趣教書，如果是，係理想選擇。
| PolyU Building Service Engg | Admission Grade | Admission Figures | UE | CLC | AL-1 | AL-2 | AL-3 | AS-1 | AS-2 | AS-3 | |||
| Upper Quartile | |||||||||||||
| Median | E | D | D | D | D | 8.7 | |||||||
| Lower Quartile | |||||||||||||
| Median | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 35 | 5 subjects | |||||
| Your Score | 4 | 3 | 4/4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | |||||||
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 35 | 5 subjects | |||||
| Weighting of Building Service Engineering | |||||||||||||
| English; | |||||||||||||
| Mathematics; | |||||||||||||
| Extended modules of Mathematics; | |||||||||||||
| Physics; | |||||||||||||
| Combined Science with Physics; | |||||||||||||
應該無問題。
| PolyU Engg Physics | Admission Grade | Admission Figures | UE | CLC | AL-1 | AL-2 | AL-3 | AS-1 | AS-2 | AS-3 | |||
| Upper Quartile | |||||||||||||
| Median | D | D | D | D | E | 8.2 | |||||||
| Lower Quartile | |||||||||||||
| Median | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 35 | 5 subjects | |||||
| Your Score | 5 | 3 | 4/4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | ||||||
| 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 35 | 5 subjects | ||||
| Weighting of Engineering Physics | |||||||||||||
| Mathematics; | |||||||||||||
| Extended modules of Mathematics; | |||||||||||||
| Physics; and | |||||||||||||
| Combined
Science with Physics. | |||||||||||||
他選工程物理應該無問題，可以選埋Building Service Engg, 因為英文好機會重高。
暫時講住咁多先!!!!
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發表評論 評論 (138 個評論)
- 回覆 cowboymama
- 嘩！高人呀！快啲過高中教育區幫88muimui分析下55*5554入唔入到polyU physiotherapy or CU Psy。救人一命呀！
- 回覆 ANChan59
- 妳介紹佢黎睇咪得囉.....
cowboymama: 嘩！高人呀！快啲過高中教育區幫88muimui分析下55*5554入唔入到polyU physiotherapy or CU Psy。救人一命呀！
- 回覆 MacMa
- Still puzzling! Waiting for your further update and elaboration. I need more times to digest it!
- 回覆 cowboymama
- 啱啱介紹咗喇！
ANChan59: 妳介紹佢黎睇咪得囉.....
- 回覆 88muimui
- Thanks. 其實唔係太明 '因為PolyU 用AL 時 A=5, B=4..... 但AS時成0.6 ，所以 3 x 4 +2x4x0.6 = 16.8. 然後換算成 B = 6，5 x 6 = 30' 不過唔緊要, 大概知點比較!
- 回覆 cowboymama
- 有唔明，揾ANChan喇！佢好好人呀！
88muimui: BTW, 果個唔係我女
係朋友, 我女明年考 
佢個仔下年升大學我地都唔會俾佢離開EK呀！等我地啲仔女攪掂哂先！
- 回覆 ANChan59
- You need to go to JUPAS website and find the Admission Figures of 2011 pdf file. Then check at the PolyU Physiotherapy, the average should be 16.7 and I work it back to 5Bs based on the small print of the remarks.
88muimui: Thanks. 其實唔係太明 '因為PolyU 用AL 時 A=5, B=4..... 但AS時成0.6 ，所以 3 x 4 +2x4x0.6 = 16.8. 然後換算成 B = 6，5 x 6 = 30' 不過唔緊要, 大概知點比 ...
If your friend still have query, write to me under this blog.
- 回覆 cowboymama
- 又幫你強力推銷喇！
ANChan59: 妳介紹佢黎睇咪得囉.....
點計呀？
- 回覆 cowboymama
- 你細女升P3，我細女升P5。
Yanamami: 多謝你代我地講心底話.
ANChan有排挨呀！
- 回覆 cowboymama
- 吓！敢咪益咗佢！
Yanamami: 教育局又唔知變左幾多變o路, 可能佢到時都out 晒. 搞埋個大既就算.
還掂佢都冇Dr讀囉！咪繼續keep住睇住個「市」囉！
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